#RollyPH may pass close to Metro Manila after Quezon landfall Sunday

After its landfall over Quezon province this Sunday, typhoon “Rolly” (international name: “Goni”) will possibly pass close to Metro Manila between Sunday evening and Monday morning.

In its weather bulletin Saturday morning, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) weather specialist Benison Estareja said Rolly will move west-southwest this Saturday toward the sea off the coast of Bicol region.
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The typhoon was already around 540 kilometers east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes, moving at 20 kilometers per hour (kph) around 7 a.m.

Beginning early Sunday, it will gradually turn west-northwest, bringing its inner rainbands-eyewall region near or over Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur during the morning-afternoon hours and over Quezon-southern Aurora area during the afternoon-evening hours.
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The center of the eye of the typhoon may pass very close or over the Calaguas Islands by Sunday afternoon and make landfall in Polillo Islands and mainland Quezon in the evening.

Estareja said the eye of Rolly will likely pass directly over Quezon-Aurora, entire Central Luzon, “where Metro Manila and Rizal will be closest,” and over parts of Ilocos Region, particularly Pangasinan and La Union.

After crossing Central Luzon, the center of Rolly may exit the mainland Luzon landmass, most likely through the Zambales-Bataan area by Monday morning, Estareja said.

Signal No. 2 up; Metro Manila under signal No. 1

The wind signal in some provinces in the Bicol region were upgraded to tropical cyclone wind signal No. 2 as damaging gale-force to storm-force winds is expected to affect these areas in the next 24 hours.

Signal No. 2 has been hoisted over Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Burias Island, and the southeastern portion of Quezon (San Francisco, San Andres, San Narciso, Mulanay, Catanauan, Buenavista, Lopez, Guinayangan, Calauag, Tagkawayan).

More areas were also placed under signal No. 1 in anticipation of strong breeze to near gale conditions associated with the approaching typhoon.

PAGASA said signal No. 3 may be raised over portions of Bicol region late Saturday.

Based on the intensity forecast, the highest possible wind signal to be raised will be signal No. 4 for very destructive typhoon-force winds.

Elsewhere, areas that are not under not under tropical cyclone warning signal may experience strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies, particularly over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, and the coastal and mountainous areas of Cagayan and Isabela.

Nears super-typhoon status

As of Saturday morning, Rolly has maximum sustained winds of 215 kph and gustiness of up to 265 kph.

It is close to reaching the 220 kph maximum wind speed to be classified as a supertyphoon. PAGASA is not ruling its possible intensification into a supertyphoon within 12 hours.

Estareja said Rolly has a high chance of intensifying into a supertyphoon while on its way to the country, but there is still a slim probability that it may make landfall as a supertyphoon.

However, it is still expected to remain a strong typhoon or near supertyphoon strength by the time it makes landfall over Quezon.

While traversing Luzon, the tropical cyclone may weaken considerably to a minimal typhoon (120 kph to 140 kph yung maximum sustained winds), Estareja said. Nonetheless, Rolly is still possibly destructive.

It may emerge as a severe tropical storm over the West Philippine Sea.

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