Rolly maintains strength moves closer to Bicol Region; Signal No. 2 over four provinces

Typhoon Rolly maintains its strength as it moves closer towards the Bicol Region, according to the Severe Weather Bulletin issued by PAGASA early Saturday morning.

On Saturday morning through evening, the trough of Rolly will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Central Visayas, Negros Occidental, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Palawan including Cuyo Islands, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and Sulu Archipelago.

By late Saturday evening through Sunday, heavy to intense rains due to Rolly will be experienced over Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Metro Manila, Central Luzon Marinduque, and the northern portions of Occidental and Oriental Mindoro.

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Moderate to heavy rains will also be experienced over the Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, and Quirino.

As of 4 a.m. on Saturday, the eye of Typhoon Rolly was located at 655 kilometers east Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes with maximum sustained winds of 215 kilometers per hour near the center and gustiness of up to 265 kph and moving westward at 20 kph.

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Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows like lahar may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. The Philippine Institute of Seismology and Volcanology (PHIVOLCS) has issued a lahar warning for several areas in Luzon late Friday evening.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 2 is hoisted over the following areas:

• Catanduanes
• the eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Garchitorena, Lagonoy, Tinambac, Siruma, Presentacion, San Jose, Goa, Buhi, Sagnay, Tigaon, Ocampo, Iriga City, Baao, Nabua, Bato, Balatan, Bula, Pili, Calabanga, Naga City, Bombon, Magarao, Canaman, Gainza, Milaor, Camaligan, Minalabac),
• Albay
• Sorsogon

TCWS No. 1 is hoisted over the following areas:

Luzon

• Camarines Norte
• the rest of Camarines Sur
• Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands
• Quezon including Polillo Islands
• Rizal
• Laguna
• Cavite
• Batangas
• Marinduque
• Romblon
• Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island
• Oriental Mindoro
• Metro Manila
• Bulacan
• Pampanga
• Bataan
• Zambales
• Tarlac
• Nueva Ecija
• Aurora
• Pangasinan
• Benguet
• Ifugao
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Quirino
• the southern portion of Isabela (Aurora, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Naguilian, Benito Soliven, San Mariano, Palanan, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Echague, San Agustin, Jones, Cordon, Santiago City, Ramon, San Isidro, Angadanan, Alicia, Cauayan City, Cabatuan, San Mateo)

Visayas

• Northern Samar
• the northern portion of Samar (Tagapul-An, Almagro, Santo Nino, Tarangnan, Catbalogan City, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Gandara, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, Jiabong, Motiong, Paranas, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao)
• the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Taft, Can-Avid, Dolores, Maslog, Jipapad, Arteche, Oras, San Policarpo)
• the northern portion of Biliran (Kawayan, Maripipi)

In anticipation of strong breeze to near gale conditions associated with the approaching typhoon, more areas are now placed under TCWS No. 1.

The wind signal in some provinces in the Bicol Region are now upgraded to TCWS No. 2 as damaging gale-force to storm-force winds is expected to affect these areas in the next 24 hours.

TCWS No. 3 (for destructive typhoon-force winds) may be raised over portions of Bicol Region later today.

Based on the intensity forecast, the highest possible wind signal to be raised will be TCWS No. 4, for very destructive typhoon-force winds.

Potential impacts of the wind conditions to structures and vegetation under each wind signal are detailed in the TCWS section of this bulletin.

Elsewhere, strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies will be experienced over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, and the coastal and mountainous areas of Cagayan and Isabela, that are not under TCWS No. 1.

There is a moderate to high risk of storm surge of up to 3.0 m over the northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands and up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Aurora, Marinduque, Bicol Region, and Northern Samar and the other coastal areas of Quezon in the next 48 hours which may result in life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation. This storm surge may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast.

On Saturday, rough to phenomenal seas (from 2.5 to 15.0 meters ) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where TCWS is in effect and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 meters) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under TCWS) and Caraga.

Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters, especially those under TCWS.

Moderate to rough seas (current reaching from 1.2 to 2.5 meters) will be experienced over remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

On the forecast track, Rolly will move west-southwestward today towards the sea off the coast of Bicol Region.

By early Sunday morning, Rolly will gradually turn towards the west-northwest, bringing its inner rainbands-eyewall region near or over Catanduanes and the Camarines Provinces during the morning-afternoon hours and over Quezon-southern Aurora area during the afternoon-evening hours.

The center of the eye of the typhoon is forecast to pass very close or over the Calaguas Islands on Sunday afternoon and make landfall over Polillo Islands and mainland Quezon in the evening.

After crossing Central Luzon, the center of Rolly is forecast to exit the mainland Luzon landmass on Monday morning.

There remains a possibility that this typhoon will reach Super Typhoon category over the next 12 hours. However, Rolly is more likely to be near Super Typhoon strength (185-215 kilometers per hour) by the time it grazes Bicol Region and makes landfall over Quezon.

During its traverse over Luzon, Rolly is forecast to weaken considerably and emerge as a severe tropical storm or minimal typhoon over the West Philippine Sea.

The weather bureau continues to monitor Tropical Depression Atsani, which is still outside the Philippine Area of Responsibiliy (PAR).

As of 4 a.m. on Saturday, the center of Atsani was estimated at 1,605 kilometers east of Visayas with maximum sustained winds of 55 kiloemters per hour near the center and gustiness of up to 70 kph and moving west-northwestward at a speed of 25 kph.

Atsani forecast to enter the PAR by Sunday afternoon. However, it remains less likely to affect any portion of the country over the next 3 days. It is likely to re-intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 to 48 hours. 

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